Quarantine and testing strategies to reduce transmission risk from imported SARS-CoV-2 infections: a global modelling study (preprint)

Background Many countries require incoming air travellers to quarantine on arrival and/or undergo testing to limit importation of SARS-CoV-2. Methods We developed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 viral load trajectories over the course of infection to assess the effectiveness of quarantine and testing strategies. We consider the use of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and lateral flow testing (LFT) both pre-flight, to reduce the number of infectious arrivals and when exiting quarantine, and daily testing of arrivals with LFTs. We also estimate the effect of each strategy relative to domestic incidence, and limits of achievable risk reduction, for 99 countries where flight data and case numbers are estimated. Results We find that immediately pre-flight LFTs are more effective than PCR tests 3 days before departure in decreasing the number of departing infectious travellers. Pre-flight LFTs and post-flight quarantines, with tests to release, may prevent the majority of transmission from infectious arrivals while reducing the required duration of quarantine; a pre-flight LFT followed by 5 days in quarantine with a test to release would reduce the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected traveller compared to symptomatic self-isolation alone, Rs, by 85% (95% UI: 74%, 96%) for PCR and 85% (95% UI: 70%, 96%) for LFT, even assuming imperfect adherence to quarantine (28% of individuals) and self-isolation following a positive test (86%). Under the same adherence assumptions, 5 days of daily LFT testing would reduce Rs by 91% (95% UI: 75%, 98%). Conclusions Strategies aimed at reducing the risk of imported cases should be considered with respect to: domestic incidence, transmission, and susceptibility; measures in place to support quarantining travellers; and incidence of new variants of concern in travellers' origin countries. Daily testing with LFTs for 5 days is comparable to 5 days of quarantine with a test on exit or 14 days with no test.

Antibody longevity and cross-neutralizing activity following SARS-CoV-2 wave 1 and B.1.1.7 infections (preprint)

As SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to emerge globally, a major challenge for COVID-19 vaccination is the generation of a durable antibody response with cross-neutralizing activity against both current and newly emerging viral variants. Cross-neutralizing activity against major variants of concern (B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.351) has been observed following vaccination, albeit at a reduced potency, but whether vaccines based on the Spike glycoprotein of these viral variants will produce a superior cross-neutralizing antibody response has not been fully investigated. Here, we used sera from individuals infected in wave 1 in the UK to study the long-term cross-neutralization up to 10 months post onset of symptoms (POS), as well as sera from individuals infected with the B.1.1.7 variant to compare cross-neutralizing activity profiles. We show that neutralizing antibodies with cross-neutralizing activity can be detected from wave 1 up to 10 months POS. Although neutralization of B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 is lower, the difference in neutralization potency decreases at later timepoints suggesting continued antibody maturation and improved tolerance to Spike mutations. Interestingly, we found that B.1.1.7 infection also generates a cross-neutralizing antibody response, which, although still less potent against B.1.351, can neutralize parental wave 1 virus to a similar degree as B.1.1.7. These findings have implications for the optimization of vaccines that protect against newly emerging viral variants.

More than the eye can see; shedding new light on SARS-CoV-2 Lateral Flow Device-based immunoassays (preprint)

Containing the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been an unprecedented challenge due to high horizontal transmissivity and asymptomatic carriage rates. Lateral Flow Device (LFD) immunoassays were introduced in late 2020 to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection in asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic individuals rapidly. Whilst LFD technologies have been used for over 60 years, their widespread use as a public health tool during a pandemic is unprecedented. By the end of 2020, data from studies into the efficacy of the LFDs emerged and showed these point-of-care devices to have very high specificity (ability to identify true negatives) but inadequate sensitivity with high false-negative rates. The low sensitivity (<50%) shown in several studies is a critical public health concern, as asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic carriers may wrongly be assumed to be non-infectious, posing a significant risk of further spread in the community. Here we show that the direct visual readout of SARS-CoV-2 LFDs is an inadequate approach to discriminate a potentially infective viral concentration in a bio-sample. We quantified significant immobilized antigen-antibody-label conjugate complexes within the LFDs visually scored as negative using high-sensitivity synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging. Correlating quantitative X-ray fluorescence measurements and qRT-PCR determined numbers of viral copies, we identified that negatively scored samples could contain up to 100 PFU (equivalent here to [~]10,000 RNA copies/test). The study demonstrates where the shortcomings arise in many of the current direct-readout SARS-CoV-2 LFDs, namely being a deficiency in the readout as opposed to the potential level of detection of the test, which is orders of magnitude higher. The present findings are of importance, both to public health monitoring during the COVID-19 pandemic and to the rapid refinement of these tools for immediate and future applications.

Comparative performance of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow antigen tests demonstrates their utility for high sensitivity detection of infectious virus in clinical specimens (preprint)

Background: Rapid antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) are set to become a cornerstone of SARS-CoV-2 mass community testing. However, their reduced sensitivity compared to PCR has raised questions of how well they identify infectious cases. Understanding their capabilities and limitations is therefore essential for successful implementation. To address this, we evaluated six commercial LFDs on the same collection of clinical samples and assessed their correlation with infectious virus culture and cycle threshold (Ct) values. Methods: A head-to-head comparison of specificities and sensitivities was performed on six commercial rapid antigen tests using combined nasal/oropharyngeal swabs, and their limits of detection determined using viral plaque forming units (PFU). Three of the LFDs were selected for a further study, correlating antigen test result with RT-PCR Ct values and positive viral culture in Vero-E6 cells. This included sequential swabs and matched serum samples obtained from four infected individuals with varying disease severities. Detection of antibodies was performed using an IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette, and neutralising antibodies by infectious virus assay. Finally, the sensitivities of selected rapid antigen LFTs were assessed in swabs with confirmed B.1.1.7 variant, currently the dominant genotype in the UK. Findings: Most of the rapid antigen LFDs showed a high specificity (>98%), and accurately detected 50 PFU/test (equivalent N1 Ct of 23.7 or RNA copy number of 3x106/ml). Sensitivities of the LFDs performed on clinical samples ranged from 65 to 89%. These sensitivities increased in most tests to over 90% for samples with Cts lower than 25. Positive virus culture was achieved for 57 out of 141 samples, with 80% of the positive cultures from swabs with Cts lower than 23. Importantly, sensitivity of the LFDs increased to over 95% when compared with the detection of infectious virus alone, irrespective of Ct. Longitudinal studies of PCR-positive samples showed that most of the tests identified all infectious samples as positive, but differences in test sensitivities can lead to missed cases in the absence of repeated testing. Finally, test performance was not impacted when re-assessed against swabs positive for the dominant UK variant B.1.1.7. Interpretation: In this comprehensive comparison of antigen LFD and virus infectivity, we demonstrate a clear relationship between Ct values, quantitative culture of infectious virus and antigen LFD positivity in clinical samples. Our data support regular testing of target groups using LFDs to supplement the current PCR testing capacity, to rapidly identify infected individuals in situations where they would otherwise go undetected.

The polybasic cleavage site in the SARS-CoV-2 spike modulates viral sensitivity to Type I IFN and IFITM2 (preprint)

ABSTRACT The cellular entry of severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronaviruses types 1 and 2 (SARS-CoV-1 and -2) requires sequential protease processing of the viral spike glycoprotein (S). The presence of a polybasic cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 S at the S1/S2 boundary has been suggested to be a factor in the increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 compared to SARS-CoV-1 by facilitating maturation of the S precursor by furin-like proteases in the producer cells rather than endosomal cathepsins in the target. We investigate the relevance of the polybasic cleavage site in the route of entry of SARS-CoV-2 and the consequences this has for sensitivity to interferons, and more specifically, the IFN-induced transmembrane (IFITM) protein family that inhibit entry of diverse enveloped viruses. We found that SARS-CoV-2 is restricted predominantly by IFITM2 and the degree of this restriction is governed by route of viral entry. Removal of the cleavage site in the spike protein renders SARS-CoV-2 entry highly pH- and cathepsin-dependent in late endosomes where, like SARS-CoV-1 S, it is more sensitive to IFITM2 restriction. Furthermore, we find that potent inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 replication by type I but not type II IFNs is alleviated by targeted depletion of IFITM2 expression. We propose that the polybasic cleavage site allows SARS-CoV-2 to mediate viral entry in a pH-independent manner, in part to mitigate against IFITM-mediated restriction and promote replication and transmission. This suggests therapeutic strategies that target furin-mediated cleavage of SARS-CoV-2 S may reduce viral replication through the activity of type I IFNs. IMPORTANCE The furin cleavage site in the S protein is a distinguishing feature of SARS-CoV-2 and has been proposed to be a determinant for the higher transmissibility between individuals compared to SARS-CoV-1. One explanation for this is that it permits more efficient activation of fusion at or near the cell surface rather than requiring processing in the endosome of the target cell. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 is inhibited by antiviral membrane protein IFITM2, and that the sensitivity is exacerbated by deletion of the furin cleavage site which restricts viral entry to low pH compartments. Furthermore, we find that IFITM2 is a significant effector of the antiviral activity of type I interferons against SARS-CoV-2 replication. We suggest one role of the furin cleavage site is to reduce SARS-CoV-2 sensitivity to innate immune restriction, and thus may represent a potential therapeutic target for COVID-19 treatment development.

Combined epidemiological and genomic analysis of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission identifies community social distancing as the dominant intervention reducing outbreaks (preprint)

Many healthcare facilities report SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks but transmission analysis is complicated by the high prevalence of infection and limited viral genetic diversity. The contribution of different vectors to nosocomial infection or the effectiveness of interventions is therefore currently unclear. Detailed epidemiological and viral nanopore sequence data were analysed from 574 consecutive patients with a PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 test between March 13th and March 31st, when the pandemic first impacted on a large, multisite healthcare institution in London. During this time the first major preventative interventions were introduced, including progressive community social distancing (CSD) policies leading to mandatory national lockdown, exclusion of hospital visitors, and introduction of universal surgical facemask-use by healthcare-workers (HCW). Incidence of nosocomial cases, community SARS-CoV-2 cases and infection in a cohort of 228 HCWs followed the same dynamic course, decreasing shortly after introduction of CSD measures and prior to the main hospital-based interventions. We investigated clusters involving nosocomial cases based on overlapping ward-stays during the 14-day incubation period and SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence similarity. Our method placed 63 (79%) of 80 sequenced probable and definite nosocomial cases into 14 clusters containing a median of 4 patients (min 2, max 19) No genetic support was found for the majority of epidemiological clusters (31/44, 70%) and genomics revealed multiple contemporaneous outbreaks within single epidemiological clusters. We included a measure of hospital enrichment compared to community cases to increase confidence in our clusters, which were 1-14 fold enriched. Applying genomics, we could provide a robust estimate of the incubation period for nosocomial transmission, with a median lower bound and upper bound of 6 and 9 days respectively. Six (43%) clusters spanned multiple wards, with evidence of cryptic transmission, and community-onset cases could not be identified in more than half the clusters, particularly on the elective hospital site, implicating HCW as vectors of transmission. Taken together these findings suggest that CSD had the dominant impact on reducing nosocomial transmission by reducing HCW infection.

Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection (preprint)

Antibody (Ab) responses to SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in most infected individuals 10-15 days following the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. However, due to the recent emergence of this virus in the human population it is not yet known how long these Ab responses will be maintained or whether they will provide protection from re-infection. Using sequential serum samples collected up to 94 days post onset of symptoms (POS) from 65 RT-qPCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals, we show seroconversion in >95% of cases and neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses when sampled beyond 8 days POS. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the nAb response is dependent upon the disease severity, but this does not affect the kinetics of the nAb response. Declining nAb titres were observed during the follow up period. Whilst some individuals with high peak ID50 (>10,000) maintained titres >1,000 at >60 days POS, some with lower peak ID50 had titres approaching baseline within the follow up period. A similar decline in nAb titres was also observed in a cohort of seropositive healthcare workers from Guys and St Thomas Hospitals. We suggest that this transient nAb response is a feature shared by both a SARS-CoV-2 infection that causes low disease severity and the circulating seasonal coronaviruses that are associated with common colds. This study has important implications when considering widespread serological testing, Ab protection against re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the durability of vaccine protection.

Clinical utility of targeted SARS-CoV-2 serology testing to aid the diagnosis and management of suspected missed, late or post-COVID-19 infection syndromes: results from a pilot service (preprint)

Objectives: Determine indications and clinical utility of SARS-CoV-2 serology testing in adults and children. Design: Prospective evaluation of initial three weeks of a daily Monday to Friday pilot SARS-CoV-2 serology service for patients. Setting: Early post 'first-wave' SARS-CoV-2 transmission period at single centre London teaching hospital that provides care to the local community, as well as regional and national referral pathways for specialist services. Participants: 110 (72 adults, 38 children, age range 0-83 years, 52.7% female (n=58)). Interventions: Patient serum from vetted referrals tested on CE marked and internally validated lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) (SureScreen Diagnostics) detecting antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins, with result and clinical interpretation provided to the direct care team. Main outcome measures: Performance characteristics, source and nature of referrals, feasibility and clinical utility of the service, particularly the benefit for clinical decision-making. Results: The LFIA was deemed suitable for clinical advice and decision making following evaluation with 310 serum samples from SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive patients and 300 pre-pandemic samples, giving a sensitivity and specificity of 96.1% and 99.3% respectively. For the pilot, 115 referrals were received leading to 113 tests performed on 108 participants (sample not available for two participants); paediatrics (n=35), medicine (n=69), surgery (n=2) and general practice (n=2). 43.4% participants (n=49) had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. There were three main indications for serology; new acute presentations potentially triggered by recent COVID-19 infection e.g. PIMS-TS (n=26) and pulmonary embolism (n=5), potential missed diagnoses in context of a recent compatible illness (n=40), and making infection control and immunosuppression treatment decisions in persistently SARS-CoV-2 RNA PCR positive individuals (n=6). Conclusions: This study shows acceptable performance characteristics, feasibility and clinical utility of a SARS-CoV-2 serology service using a rapid, inexpensive and portable assay for adults and children presenting with a range of clinical indications. Results correlated closely with a confirmatory in-house ELISA. The study showed the benefit of introducing a serology service where there is a reasonable pre-test probability, and the result can be linked with clinical advice or intervention. Experience thus far is that the volume of requests from hospital referral routes are manageable within existing clinical and laboratory services; however, the demand from community referrals has not yet been assessed. Given recent evidence for a rapid decline in antibodies, particularly following mild infection, there is likely a limited window of opportunity to realise the benefit of serology testing for individuals infected during the 'first-wave' before they potentially fall below a measurable threshold. Rapidly expanding availability of serology services for NHS patients will also help understand the long-term implications of serostatus and prior infection in different patient groups, particularly before emergence of any 'second-wave' outbreak or introduction of a vaccination programme.

Comparative assessment of multiple COVID-19 serological technologies supports continued evaluation of point-of-care lateral flow assays in hospital and community healthcare settings (preprint)

There is a clear requirement for an accurate SARS-CoV-2 antibody test, both as a complement to existing diagnostic capabilities and for determining community seroprevalence. We therefore evaluated the performance of a variety of antibody testing technologies and their potential as diagnostic tools. A highly specific in-house ELISA was developed for the detection of anti-spike (S), -receptor binding domain (RBD) and -nucleocapsid (N) antibodies and used for the cross-comparison of ten commercial serological assays - a chemiluminescence-based platform, two ELISAs and seven colloidal gold lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) - on an identical panel of 110 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples and 50 pre-pandemic negatives. There was a wide variation in the performance of the different platforms, with specificity ranging from 82% to 100%, and overall sensitivity from 60.9% to 87.3%. However, the head-to-head comparison of multiple sero-diagnostic assays on identical sample sets revealed that performance is highly dependent on the time of sampling, with sensitivities of over 95% seen in several tests when assessing samples from more than 20 days post onset of symptoms. Furthermore, these analyses identified clear outlying samples that were negative in all tests, but were later shown to be from individuals with mildest disease presentation. Rigorous comparison of antibody testing platforms will inform the deployment of point-of-care technologies in healthcare settings and their use in the monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Resilient SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics workflows including viral heat inactivation (preprint)

There is a worldwide shortage of reagents to perform detection of SARS-2. Many clinical diagnostic laboratories rely on commercial platforms that provide integrated end-to-end solutions. While this provides established robust pipelines, there is a clear bottleneck in the supply of reagents given the current situation of extraordinary high demand. Some laboratories resort to implementing kit-free handling procedures, but many other small laboratories will not have the capacity to develop those and/or will perform manual handling of their samples. In order to provide multiple workflows for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection we compared several commercially available RNA extraction methods: QIAamp Viral RNA Mini Kit (QIAgen), the recently developed RNAdvance Blood (Beckman) and Mag-Bind Viral DNA/RNA 96 Kit (Omega Bio-tek). We also compared different 1-step RT-qPCR Master Mix brands: TaqMan Fast Virus 1-Step Master Mix (ThermoFisher Scientific), qPCRBIO Probe 1-Step Go Lo-ROX (PCR Biosystems) and Luna(R) Universal Probe One-Step RT-qPCR Kit (NEB). We used the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) recommended primers that detect two regions of the viral N gene as well as those that detect the RdRP gene region as per Public Health England (PHE) guidelines (Charite/WHO/PHE). Our data show that the RNA extraction methods provide similar results. Amongst the qPCR reagents tested, TaqMan Fast Virus 1-Step Master Mix and Luna(R) Universal Probe One-Step RT-qPCR Kit proved most sensitive. The N1 and N2 primer-probes provide a more reliable detection than the RdRP-SARSr primer-probe set, particularly in samples with low viral titres. Importantly, we have implemented a protocol using heat inactivation and demonstrate that it has minimal impact on the sensitivity of the qPCR in clinical samples - potentially making SARS-CoV-2 testing portable to settings that do not have CL-3 facilities.